Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Beyond the Gold and Bond Bubbles - WSJ.com

David Malpass Beyond the Gold and Bond Bubbles - WSJ.com

EXCERPTS:

"Treasury bond yields have been at near-record lows and gold prices at record highs, attracting millions of investors into idle assets through coins, exchange-traded funds and even warehousing facilities. This reflects fear about inflation and the stability of the financial system and, for some, the coming breakdown of society under the weight of $3.6 trillion in annual Washington spending and transfer payments.
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"Mr. Bernanke should directly confront the fear index imbedded in high gold prices and low bond yields. Gold at more than $1,800 per ounce is a loud public statement of no confidence in our central bank. It means people would rather buy gold than hire workers or start businesses—that they don't trust the central bank to maintain the value of their money.
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker thought of high gold prices as his enemy and repeatedly said so as a way to build confidence in the central bank. In the 1970s, high gold prices reflected Fed incompetence that had produced inflation, stagnation and malaise. Jimmy Carter named Mr. Volcker to replace G. William Miller as Fed chairman in 1979, a rare moment of Washington accountability. Gold then fell in the 1980s and '90s in what was called affectionately "The Great Moderation." Inflation and oil prices followed gold prices down, tax rates were cut, and jobs became plentiful. Foreign capital beat a path to America's door, the mirror image of the exodus of growth capital the Fed's weak dollar is fueling.